The Crash Already Happened
Everyone’s still waiting for a market crash that never came. But the truth is, the crash already happened, just not in the way people expected.
I’ve been watching financial markets closely for over half a decade. And during that time, one thing stands out: fear sells.
2020: THE PANIC PLAYBOOK
Let’s go back almost six years ago at this point. In early 2020, within months, the world went from quiet rumblings to full-blown COVID hysteria.
In the financial world, treasury markets froze, equities collapsed, and hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman went on CNBC, warning that “hell is coming” — while pocketing billions from short positions.
In days, not months, or even weeks, the Federal Reserve and global central banks stepped in with trillions in new liquidity. Interest rates were swiftly dropped to 0%, and even negative in some countries.
In the ensuing 18 months, the US Government and Federal Reserve created over $6 trillion of new dollars, a 42% increase in the money supply.
And that wave of new dollars, to this day, has created one of the biggest market rallies in history.
THE CRASH THAT NEVER CAME
I remember it clearly. In the ensuing months and years following the onset of COVID and the massive response from the central planners, commentators everywhere said the rally would fade, that “economic reality” would soon return.
Over five years later, they’re still waiting for the crash that never came.
If I had listened, I’d still be sitting in cash, missing major rallies across the board. Instead of a market crash, here’s what actually happened:
S&P 500: +109%
NASDAQ: +117%
Bitcoin: +642%
U.S. Median Home: +~50%
Gold: +113%
While analysts, commentators, and media outlets were predicting an imminent market crash and recession, hearing the daily cries of stretched price-to-earnings ratios, the bitcoin bubble, the real crisis was sitting right in front of them the entire time.
The collapse wasn’t in the markets. It was in the money. We didn’t see a conventional market crash. Rather, we saw inflation wreak havoc on purchasing power. The destruction of the dollar’s value.
THE MELT-UP ECONOMY
Those who listened to the bears during this time stayed on the sidelines and missed the melt-up we’re living through now.
Just recently, the U.S. federal debt surpassed $38 trillion. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates again and is ending quantitative tightening, meaning more liquidity is coming soon.
In plain English, this means more dollars will be created, further destroying the dollar's purchasing power and increasing asset prices.
Inflation isn’t an accident; it’s policy. The government is insolvent and can only keep the system alive by printing more money.
The worst place to be is sitting in cash, waiting for a deflationary crash that policymakers will do all in their power to avoid. Their incentives are simple: inflate, not deflate.
Since 2008, every major policy, including zero interest rates, quantitative easing, and stimulus checks, has been designed to rescue asset markets. Asset owners got richer. The bill went to everyone else.
NOMINAL GAINS, REAL LOSSES
Those who stayed invested and deployed capital in the past five years are sitting pretty, right? Fifty-seven new all-time highs on the S&P 500 this year alone.
But the reality is that while markets look strong in nominal terms, the denominator, the dollar, is falling year after year, purchasing less and less.
An extreme example of this would be the collapse of economies under hyperinflation. The stock charts may look great, but what that really signals is the destruction of their currency.
The same dynamic is playing out here in the United States, just slower.
Look around. Housing, groceries, insurance —up 50–100% in five years. If you don’t own assets, you are losing ground rapidly. Wages haven’t increased anywhere near 50–100% over the past half-decade. Everything around you is getting more expensive, and you are falling behind if you do not invest.
The crash everyone’s waiting for is already here, sitting right in front of you, embedded in your monthly bills, and eating away at your hopes and dreams.
This is particularly true for the younger generations who are trying to build wealth by investing in assets. Those who have built wealth already and own assets are faring much better.
DON’T WAIT AROUND
Stop waiting for “the crash.” You’re living through it.
It just looks different from what most expected. Markets aren’t collapsing; the currency is. Stocks, homes, and everyday essentials keep climbing, not because they’re more valuable, but because the dollar is worth less.
If you’re sitting in cash, waiting for the system to reset, it’s not going to happen. The people in charge are too invested in keeping it alive. The only move now is to play — to own, build, and participate — because waiting is the fastest way to fall behind.
THE OLD PLAYBOOK NO LONGER WORKS
For those still in their wealth-building years, this is why I say the default is dead.
The financial playbook that worked for your parents, index funds, steady careers at Fortune 500 companies, and a rental property or two, doesn’t produce the same results anymore.
Ask your grandparents what a “safe bet” was in their time. They might’ve said fine china, savings bonds, or a pension. Every generation’s default eventually fails, and this one already has.
In a world of constant currency debasement, building wealth requires asymmetric upside and concentration. You have to build, create, or own assets that can outpace inflation by a wide margin.
Could a traditional crash still happen? Sure. Will corrections happen? Yes. But betting on it means betting against the system’s incentives. The people who own the assets also make the rules, and they’ll always choose policies that keep those assets inflated.
Subscribe to Sound Money, Sound Life to explore how to build generational health and generational wealth — and live a sound life in an unsound world.
If this resonated, please like and leave a comment. It helps me to grow the publication, and I like to hear your thoughts.
Bingo. Policy! Judge & jury! Inflation nation. Well written. Thank you